Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
