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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates tensions over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.